Tuesday 7 February 2017

"Where are we now..."

"Peace is the chief of all the world's wealth..." John Gower (1330-1408)

Chaucer's mate knew something about war. Gower was only 7 years old when the "war to end all wars" of his generation started, and peace only returned to Europe nearly half a century after his death. 71 of his 78 years on this Earth had been spent in a country at war with its nearest neighbour, France.  The so called Hundred Years War may not be a subject that is often brought into everyday conversation (!), but the dark days leading up to 1939 are, at present, often revisited. The Trump presidency, with its love of autocratic diktats, the rise of right wing parties, the rhetoric of division - all this is offered as proof that we are under threat from a new wave of dictatorships. Alt-Right is just a geekish version of Fascism. With the KKK crooning over Trump, and our own EDL in Brexit Wonderland, there is little doubt that we are in difficult times.

The key thread for us to understand is that this carefully marshalled populist tide is aiming to wash away the bulwarks that have been constructed during the 20th century - bulwarks that keep us in the calm waters of the harbour. Steve Bannon, Trump's muse, is a pirate. Famously, he expressed the desire to "destroy the state". He wants those separate countries out of the safety of the harbour, out on the high seas, where he can bully them at will.
When he says "the state" he means big institutions such as Trade Areas and the EU. Institutions that have the clout to stand up to bullies. Hence the Alt-Right's "populism". It is a means to an end, rather than a misty-eyed belief in Nationhood. But you only have to look at the way the UK is slipping towards some chaotic break up to understand that this is one genie that is extremely unlikely to go back into the bottle quietly. Bannon would look at where the UK is right now and nod approvingly.

Purely on an academic level, my own opinion is that we are in a situation more akin to the build up to WW1 than WW2.The build up of tensions on the road to war in 1914 was all to do with a mad scramble for power between increasingly nationalistic states. The militarisation of the conflict was, to some extent, inevitable. The Kaiser's advisers pushed Europe to the brink of war because they believed that that was the way to get what they wanted. The suspicion is that President Bannon's foreign policy will be no more than a series of set plays, a study in brinksmanship in Iran and the South China Seas. Meanwhile, Putin will make inroads into the Baltic states and Ukraine. Almost as if it's co-ordinated. As if someone's made a deal. A great deal.

As a Tour Guide who spends a lot of time (my family would say way too much...) in the cemeteries that are dotted around Ypres and the Somme, I am perhaps acutely aware of just how dangerous this Alt-Right game could be. One of the key questions I'm asked quite often is a disarmingly simple one - "Could this happen again?" Up till this last summer I've been able to answer with some confidence. "No. Because we're all Europeans now." Now, when that question is posed, I'll look out across the 13,000 graves at Tyne Cot Cemetery and gaze towards the distant spires of Ypres. I'll shrug my shoulders. Because I really don't know anymore. One thing is certain - politicians who talk loosely about going to war are guilty of wilfully ignoring any lessons of history. To go to war is the sign that a foreign policy has failed, not an end in itself.

So here in Europe, watch out for Bannon's new Breitbart offices in Berlin and Paris pouring  out their bile in the direction of any non right wing candidate. Expect revelations on Macron and Merkel, mostly #fakenews, chipping away at the poll numbers. Make no mistake, the demise of the EU is a major target. Sadly, it might be worth remembering that the symbol of our eventual demise at the end of the Hundred Years War was the loss of Calais. Five centuries later, our retreat from the continent might be the first step towards a different, but no less significant, defeat.




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